Closing spread
NO -7
Total
45
Model margin
+5.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.072
- 39.6%Success rate44.8%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.50CPOE+2.07
- 33.3%Third-down rate45.7%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.43Points / drive1.91
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:44 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:57 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 7:59 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:18 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NO | Q1 0:20 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:11 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:02 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 8:11 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NO | Q2 6:42 | 13 | 52 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 0:43 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 3–14 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SF | Q3 12:56 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NO | Q3 10:52 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| SF | Q3 10:51 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| NO | Q3 10:34 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| SF | Q3 9:02 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NO | Q3 6:41 | 13 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| SF | Q3 0:12 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| NO | Q4 14:14 | 6 | 91 | Touchdown | 10–31 |
| SF | Q4 11:18 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–31 |
| NO | Q4 10:09 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 10–34 |
| SF | Q4 2:31 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 10–34 |
| NO | Q4 1:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/28 | 171 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 17/28 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 26 | 136 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.89