Closing spread
NO -7
Total
45
Model margin
+5.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.072
- 39.6%Success rate44.8%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.088EPA / rush-0.049
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.50CPOE+2.07
- 33.3%Third-down rate45.7%
- 46.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.43Points / drive1.91
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/28 | 171 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 17/28 | 186 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 26 | 136 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.89