2006 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 14mph
Closing spread
ATL -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.186
- 39.9%Success rate37.6%
- -0.078EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.149
- 10.3%Explosive rate6.4%
- -2.80CPOE-4.51
- 36.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.44Points / drive0.82
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:12 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 6:43 | 10 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 2:27 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q2 11:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–6 |
| TB | Q2 10:01 | 6 | 29 | Missed field goal | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q2 7:27 | 10 | 55 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| TB | Q2 2:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–6 |
| ATL | Q2 1:10 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 0–6 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 22 | Opp touchdown | 7–6 |
| TB | Q3 9:51 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 7–6 |
| ATL | Q3 8:18 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–6 |
| TB | Q3 3:24 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–6 |
| ATL | Q4 14:53 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 14–6 |
| TB | Q4 9:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–6 |
| ATL | Q4 8:49 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 14–6 |
| TB | Q4 4:31 | 2 | -1 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| ATL | Q4 4:18 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| TB | Q4 3:14 | 14 | 83 | Turnover on downs | 17–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 14/23 | 155 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Griffith | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Gradkowski | 13/24 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 9/13 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 20 | 48 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86