Closing spread
NYJ -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.019
- 41.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- +3.28CPOE+2.38
- 30.9%Third-down rate44.6%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.74
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 13:06 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:41 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:56 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 5:59 | 4 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:22 | 6 | 51 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 1:08 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:17 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 10:58 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:25 | 6 | 30 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 6:13 | 3 | 84 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:47 | 6 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 21–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:47 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| BUF | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 21–13 |
| BUF | Q3 9:30 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 5:09 | 4 | 6 | Turnover | 21–13 |
| BUF | Q3 3:28 | 4 | 18 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–13 |
| BUF | Q4 14:47 | 10 | 57 | Field goal | 31–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 7:59 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 31–13 |
| BUF | Q4 6:23 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 31–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:01 | 6 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| BUF | Q4 3:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 31–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:47 | 4 | -6 | Turnover on downs | 31–13 |
| BUF | Q4 0:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 10/15 | 157 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 125 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/35 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.99