Closing spread
NYJ -4.5
Total
38
Model margin
+4.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.019
- 41.6%Success rate43.0%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.5%
- +3.28CPOE+2.38
- 30.9%Third-down rate44.6%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate49.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.74
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 10/15 | 157 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 16 | 125 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Anthony Thomas | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/35 | 182 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 18 | 50 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.99