Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:26 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:02 | 7 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:49 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 5:46 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:07 | 12 | 99 | Touchdown | 6–6 |
| CHI | Q2 12:45 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 12:32 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| CHI | Q2 7:43 | 9 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LA | Q2 3:30 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q2 1:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LA | Q2 1:25 | 6 | 51 | Missed field goal | 14–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q3 11:56 | 6 | 94 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| LA | Q3 8:40 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–13 |
| CHI | Q3 7:15 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| LA | Q3 3:31 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–13 |
| CHI | Q3 2:34 | 10 | 34 | Touchdown | 35–13 |
| LA | Q4 13:04 | 15 | 74 | Touchdown | 41–20 |
| CHI | Q4 7:35 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 42–20 |
| LA | Q4 7:22 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 42–27 |
| CHI | Q4 4:41 | 4 | 12 | Missed field goal | 42–27 |
| LA | Q4 4:05 | 11 | 49 | Turnover | 42–27 |
| CHI | Q4 1:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 42–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 13/23 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 76 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.