Closing spread
NE -3
Total
37
Model margin
-0.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.103
- 44.2%Success rate41.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.139
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.89CPOE-1.62
- 43.7%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.82Points / drive1.19
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:03 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 7:15 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 2:34 | 7 | 3 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:28 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 14:33 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q2 11:41 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 7:00 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q2 4:13 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q2 1:53 | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 21 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NE | Q3 10:54 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q3 9:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NE | Q3 7:54 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIA | Q3 5:39 | 5 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| NE | Q3 2:51 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q4 12:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NE | Q4 10:50 | 7 | -1 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q4 9:25 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| NE | Q4 4:56 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| MIA | Q4 3:18 | 3 | 52 | End of half | 0–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 12/25 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2/3 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 18/30 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 25 | 123 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.19