Closing spread
DAL -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play+0.072
- 44.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.157EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.07CPOE+3.73
- 45.7%Third-down rate49.3%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.18
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 10–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. DAL are 5-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:55 | 2 | 79 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 12:06 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 9:07 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 6:37 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 14:53 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 14:23 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 10:19 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 8:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DAL | Q2 6:33 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:04 | 10 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| DAL | Q2 0:44 | 5 | 26 | Missed field goal | 21–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–7 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 66 | Field goal | 21–10 |
| NO | Q3 11:26 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| DAL | Q3 9:59 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| NO | Q3 7:46 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 35–17 |
| DAL | Q3 5:16 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 35–17 |
| NO | Q3 5:14 | 4 | 59 | Touchdown | 42–17 |
| DAL | Q3 3:47 | 10 | 50 | Turnover | 42–17 |
| NO | Q3 0:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 42–17 |
| DAL | Q4 14:40 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 42–17 |
| NO | Q4 11:11 | 11 | 85 | Turnover on downs | 42–17 |
| DAL | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 42–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/38 | 384 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 111 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 5 | -6 | -1.2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 16/33 | 249 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 10 | 116 | 11.6 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.24