Closing spread
NE -13
Total
37.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.063
- 43.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.007
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- +4.14CPOE+0.89
- 38.7%Third-down rate43.7%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.41Points / drive1.82
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/28 | 127 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 18 | 94 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Wali Lundy | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/23 | 109 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3/4 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 20 | 61 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.62