Closing spread
NE -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.093
- 46.5%Success rate47.8%
- -0.040EPA / dropback+0.211
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.193
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.7%
- -2.06CPOE+6.51
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.5%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.88Points / drive2.25
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 26/40 | 365 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 1 |
| James White | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damiere Byrd | 6 | 7 | 132 | 1 |
| James White | 6 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 2 | 3 | 59 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 28/37 | 344 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 85 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 5 | 6 | 83 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Keke Coutee | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| C.J. Prosise | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.22