2020 · Week 11

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

20·27

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

NE -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTexans
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.093
  • 46.5%Success rate47.8%
  • -0.040EPA / dropback+0.211
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.193
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -2.06CPOE+6.51
  • 41.3%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.25
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE
2016 · W3HOU @ NE0–27NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00522Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:241084Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 6:52673Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 3:3659Punt7–7
HOUQ1 1:20619Punt7–7
NEQ2 13:371055Field goal10–7
HOUQ2 8:32970Touchdown10–14
NEQ2 3:5433Punt10–14
HOUQ2 2:201190Touchdown10–21
NEQ2 0:1000End of half10–21
NEQ3 15:00418Punt10–21
HOUQ3 12:3636Punt10–21
NEQ3 10:57782Touchdown17–21
HOUQ3 8:141167Field goal17–24
NEQ3 2:041675Field goal20–24
HOUQ4 7:39747Field goal20–27
NEQ4 4:111151Turnover on downs20–27
HOUQ4 1:1135Punt20–27
NEQ4 0:09259End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton26/4036510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris11433.91
James White5193.80
Damiere Byrd11111.00
Rex Burkhead471.80
Cam Newton362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damiere Byrd671321
James White69640
Ryan Izzo23590
N'Keal Harry58410
Jakobi Meyers33380
Donte Moncrief12150
Damien Harris12110
Rex Burkhead2350

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson28/3734420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson6366.01
Duke Johnson10151.50
C.J. Prosise341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks45850
Jordan Akins56830
Will Fuller68800
Darren Fells22290
Pharaoh Brown23220
Duke Johnson35200
Keke Coutee24101
C.J. Prosise2280
Randall Cobb2271

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.22