Closing spread
NE -16
Total
44
Model margin
+5.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.128
- 41.9%Success rate44.3%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.077
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.29CPOE+2.98
- 36.9%Third-down rate47.3%
- 42.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.45Points / drive2.47
- 1.9%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 23/40 | 197 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 74 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 3 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 4 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Akeem Hunt | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Keith Mumphery | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/38 | 287 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 13 | 41 | 3.2 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 13 | 137 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 4 | 95 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.85