2016 · DIV

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Brock Osweiler

16·34

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 28°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -16

Total

44

Model margin

+5.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPatriots
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.128
  • 41.9%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.154EPA / rush-0.077
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -3.29CPOE+2.98
  • 36.9%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 42.0%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.45Points / drive2.47
  • 1.9%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · W3HOU @ NE0–27NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NE
HOUQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:0138Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:0532Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:10335Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:271457Field goal3–13
NEQ1 1:1500Touchdown3–14
HOUQ1 1:0039Punt3–14
NEQ2 14:3210Turnover3–14
HOUQ2 14:24628Field goal6–14
NEQ2 11:3600Touchdown6–14
HOUQ2 11:29212Touchdown13–14
NEQ2 10:4932Punt13–14
HOUQ2 8:4335Punt13–14
NEQ2 7:48645Punt13–14
HOUQ2 5:3037Punt13–14
NEQ2 3:54966Field goal13–17
HOUQ2 0:0700End of half13–17
NEQ3 15:0032Punt13–17
HOUQ3 14:07423Punt13–17
NEQ3 12:309100Touchdown13–24
HOUQ3 9:09421Turnover13–24
NEQ3 7:19726Punt13–24
HOUQ3 5:56948Punt13–24
NEQ3 2:02413Turnover13–24
HOUQ3 0:4136Field goal16–24
NEQ4 14:51515Punt16–24
HOUQ4 13:0010Turnover16–24
NEQ4 12:4426Touchdown16–31
HOUQ4 12:1635Punt16–31
NEQ4 10:22943Field goal16–34
HOUQ4 6:37859Turnover16–34
NEQ4 3:08219End of half16–34

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler23/4019713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller19743.90
Brock Osweiler11818.00
Jonathan Grimes2115.50
Alfred Blue122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins69650
Jonathan Grimes44430
C.J. Fiedorowicz35361
Will Fuller36160
Lamar Miller47150
Akeem Hunt22150
Keith Mumphery1370
Ryan Griffin0300
Stephen Anderson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady18/3828722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis13413.21
LeGarrette Blount8313.90
Danny Amendola11515.00
Julian Edelman11212.00
Tom Brady4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman8131370
Chris Hogan44950
Dion Lewis27231
James White11191
Michael Floyd1390
Martellus Bennett1440
Danny Amendola0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +167.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.85