Closing spread
HOU -6.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.081
- 39.1%Success rate42.5%
- +0.008EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.187
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- -2.77CPOE+1.54
- 38.2%Third-down rate35.0%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.84Points / drive1.51
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/31 | 192 | 3 | 1 |
| Davis Mills | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 102 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 8 | 76 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 6 | 7 | 77 | 1 |
| Tank Dell | 7 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 20/33 | 243 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 6 | 9 | 92 | 1 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 3 | 59 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.72