2024 · Week 6

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

41·21

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 53°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPatriots
  • -0.038EPA / play-0.081
  • 39.1%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.008EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.187
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -2.77CPOE+1.54
  • 38.2%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.51
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE
2016 · W3HOU @ NE0–27NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NE
HOUQ1 15:001261Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 9:1331Punt7–0
HOUQ1 7:34939Touchdown14–0
NEQ1 3:1337Turnover14–0
HOUQ1 1:3955Missed field goal14–0
NEQ2 14:30513Punt14–0
HOUQ2 11:24359Turnover14–0
NEQ2 10:24621Punt14–0
HOUQ2 7:5835Punt14–0
NEQ2 5:2259Punt14–0
HOUQ2 2:38515Punt14–0
NEQ2 0:59671Touchdown14–7
HOUQ2 0:1100End of half14–7
NEQ3 15:002-11Turnover14–7
HOUQ3 14:10210Touchdown21–7
NEQ3 13:2831Punt21–7
HOUQ3 11:58959Field goal24–7
NEQ3 6:5615Turnover24–7
HOUQ3 6:4233Field goal27–7
NEQ3 5:22775Touchdown27–14
HOUQ3 1:00518Punt27–14
NEQ4 14:0710Turnover27–14
HOUQ4 14:03226Touchdown34–14
NEQ4 13:14970Touchdown34–21
HOUQ4 9:24470Touchdown41–21
NEQ4 7:4742Punt41–21
HOUQ4 5:123-1Punt41–21
NEQ4 3:311127End of half41–21

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud20/3119231
Davis Mills0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon131027.81
Dameon Pierce8769.51
Dare Ogunbowale284.00
C.J. Stroud372.30
Cam Akers2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs67771
Tank Dell79571
Joe Mixon23301
Dalton Schultz48270
Dameon Pierce1110
Xavier Hutchinson0200
Cade Stover0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye20/3324332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drake Maye5387.60
Antonio Gibson13191.50
Terrell Jennings5132.60
JaMycal Hasty3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas69921
Kayshon Boutte33591
Hunter Henry35411
Antonio Gibson34240
Kendrick Bourne2290
JaMycal Hasty1290
Austin Hooper1250
Ja'Lynn Polk1440

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.72