2021 · Week 5

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

25·22

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

39.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTexans
  • +0.070EPA / play-0.134
  • 48.6%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.213
  • 11.1%Explosive rate6.1%
  • +2.93CPOE-1.54
  • 45.5%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 2.41Points / drive1.50
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE
2016 · W3HOU @ NE0–27NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001979Touchdown0–6
NEQ1 4:541060Touchdown6–6
HOUQ2 14:17375Touchdown6–12
NEQ2 12:56867Turnover6–12
HOUQ2 8:481683Field goal6–15
NEQ2 1:37837Field goal9–15
HOUQ2 0:0200End of half9–15
NEQ3 15:0020Turnover9–15
HOUQ3 14:13244Touchdown9–22
NEQ3 13:3130Punt9–22
HOUQ3 11:4338Punt9–22
NEQ3 10:2233Field goal12–22
HOUQ3 8:25516Punt12–22
NEQ3 5:48647Field goal15–22
HOUQ3 1:50640Missed field goal15–22
NEQ4 13:25754Touchdown22–22
HOUQ4 9:3138Punt22–22
NEQ4 7:151684Field goal25–22
HOUQ4 0:1527Turnover25–22

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones23/3023111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris14584.11
Brandon Bolden22512.50
Rhamondre Stevenson11232.10
Kendrick Bourne11212.00
Jonnu Smith155.00
Mac Jones133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry68751
Jakobi Meyers45560
Nelson Agholor34320
Jonnu Smith22270
Kendrick Bourne33260
N'Keal Harry1290
Brandon Bolden4460

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills21/2931230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram16412.60
Phillip Lindsay5193.80
David Johnson252.50
Davis Mills122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Moore551091
Chris Conley34841
David Johnson56460
Brandin Cooks35230
Pharaoh Brown24220
Jordan Akins22170
Antony Auclair11111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -82.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.8%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.96