Closing spread
NE -8
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play-0.134
- 48.6%Success rate37.6%
- +0.133EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.213
- 11.1%Explosive rate6.1%
- +2.93CPOE-1.54
- 45.5%Third-down rate38.7%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.41Points / drive1.50
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/30 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 21/29 | 312 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Davis Mills | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Moore | 5 | 5 | 109 | 1 |
| Chris Conley | 3 | 4 | 84 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Antony Auclair | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.96