Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.053EPA / play+0.137
- 40.4%Success rate49.2%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.042
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.95CPOE+3.49
- 36.6%Third-down rate40.8%
- 63.3%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.47Points / drive2.52
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 22/33 | 301 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 5 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Bruce Ellington | 4 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/35 | 378 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gillislee | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 131 | 2 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 8 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 6 | 68 | 2 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.94
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.44