2017 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

33·36

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 84°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -13.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPatriots
  • -0.053EPA / play+0.137
  • 40.4%Success rate49.2%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.042
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.95CPOE+3.49
  • 36.6%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 63.3%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.47Points / drive2.52
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE
2016 · W3HOU @ NE0–27NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NE
HOUQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:32846Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 10:33623Field goal3–7
NEQ1 7:2239Punt3–7
HOUQ1 5:5838Punt3–7
NEQ1 4:2332Punt3–7
HOUQ1 2:31244Touchdown10–7
NEQ1 1:51633Punt10–7
HOUQ2 14:16314Turnover10–7
NEQ2 12:5727Touchdown10–14
HOUQ2 12:25955Field goal13–14
NEQ2 7:012-3Opp touchdown20–14
NEQ2 6:15675Touchdown20–21
HOUQ2 3:58730Punt20–21
NEQ2 1:02411End of half20–21
NEQ3 15:00581Touchdown20–28
HOUQ3 12:451170Touchdown27–28
NEQ3 7:12932Punt27–28
HOUQ3 1:421167Field goal30–28
NEQ4 12:1339Punt30–28
HOUQ4 10:28728Punt30–28
NEQ4 7:1939Punt30–28
HOUQ4 5:55759Field goal33–28
NEQ4 2:24985Touchdown33–36
HOUQ4 0:23221Turnover33–36

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson22/3330122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller14564.00
Deshaun Watson8415.10
D'Onta Foreman8253.10
Tyler Ervin144.00
Bruce Ellington1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins78760
D'Onta Foreman23650
Ryan Griffin56611
Bruce Ellington47591
Braxton Miller14150
Stephen Anderson13140
Lamar Miller1170
Tyler Ervin1140

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3537850

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Gillislee12312.60
James White5173.40
Tom Brady166.00
Dion Lewis252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks571312
Rob Gronkowski810891
Chris Hogan46682
Danny Amendola35480
Jacob Hollister11190
Dion Lewis33120
James White11110
Dwayne Allen0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.94
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.44