Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-1.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutRyan IzzoTEIllness· DNP
- QuestionableByron CowartDTHead· Limited
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBIllness· Limited
- QuestionableIsaiah WynnTIllness· Limited
- QuestionableJa'Whaun BentleyLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJamie CollinsLBIllness· Limited
- QuestionableJason McCourtyCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableJermaine EluemunorGIllness· Limited
- QuestionableJoejuan WilliamsCBIllness· Limited
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableKyle Van NoyLBIllness· DNP
- QuestionableMarcus CannonTIllness· Limited
- QuestionableMatt SlaterWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableMohamed SanuWRAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNate EbnerSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick ChungSIllness· Limited
- QuestionablePhillip DorsettWRConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableStephon GilmoreCBIllness· Limited
- DNPNick FolkKAppendix
- LimitedJohn SimonDEElbow
Texans
- OutCarlos WatkinsDEHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulTytus HowardTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableAngelo BlacksonDEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableBrennan ScarlettLBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBHip· Limited
Win probability
- Texans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.057
- 42.6%Success rate45.6%
- +0.065EPA / dropback+0.132
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.071
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.06CPOE+1.12
- 39.1%Third-down rate43.7%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.85Points / drive2.18
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. HOU are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 14:05 | 13 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 7:04 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:49 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 1:58 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q1 0:38 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–7 |
| HOU | Q2 13:13 | 13 | 88 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NE | Q2 6:21 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 2:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NE | Q2 1:05 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 5 | -6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q3 12:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NE | Q3 10:47 | 8 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 3–14 |
| HOU | Q3 7:08 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| NE | Q3 5:41 | 15 | 105 | Touchdown | 9–21 |
| HOU | Q3 0:11 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 9–28 |
| NE | Q4 9:53 | 14 | 63 | Touchdown | 15–28 |
| HOU | Q4 3:42 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 15–28 |
| NE | Q4 2:36 | 7 | 89 | Touchdown | 22–28 |
| HOU | Q4 0:50 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 22–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 24/47 | 326 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 14 | 79 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 11 | 106 | 1 |
| James White | 8 | 11 | 98 | 2 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 18/25 | 234 | 3 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1/1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Johnson | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 5 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.95
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.97