Closing spread
NE -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.032EPA / play+0.090
- 44.3%Success rate47.3%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.7%
- +4.58CPOE+1.03
- 36.4%Third-down rate41.8%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.91Points / drive2.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 17/34 | 176 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 20 | 98 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 8 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 4 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Tyler Ervin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/39 | 277 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 18 | 64 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 7 | 8 | 123 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 7 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| James White | 4 | 9 | 38 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Riley McCarron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.82