2018 · Week 1

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

20·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -6

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPatriots
  • +0.032EPA / play+0.090
  • 44.3%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.031
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +4.58CPOE+1.03
  • 36.4%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 54.1%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–28NE
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE
2016 · W3HOU @ NE0–27NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NE
NEQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:0410Turnover0–0
NEQ1 12:58324Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 11:5034Punt0–7
NEQ1 10:21518Punt0–7
HOUQ1 7:51648Punt0–7
NEQ1 5:3949Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 4:063-7Field goal3–7
NEQ1 2:331161Touchdown3–14
HOUQ2 12:38844Field goal6–14
NEQ2 9:01612Punt6–14
HOUQ2 7:09424Turnover6–14
NEQ2 5:3036Punt6–14
HOUQ2 4:24729Punt6–14
NEQ2 1:28878Touchdown6–21
HOUQ2 0:1400End of half6–21
HOUQ3 15:0039Punt6–21
NEQ3 12:54229Turnover6–21
HOUQ3 12:09738Turnover on downs6–21
NEQ3 9:521058Field goal6–24
HOUQ3 6:021073Touchdown13–24
NEQ3 1:521258Field goal13–27
HOUQ4 9:48520Punt13–27
NEQ4 7:0938Punt13–27
HOUQ4 5:1732Punt13–27
HOUQ4 4:32715Touchdown20–27
NEQ4 2:08520Punt20–27
HOUQ4 0:43627End of half20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson17/3417611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller20984.90
Deshaun Watson8405.00
Alfred Blue5367.21
DeAndre Hopkins1-7-7.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins811780
Bruce Ellington48371
Tyler Ervin11120
Lamar Miller12110
Jordan Akins22110
Ryan Griffin0500
Sammie Coates0100
Vyncint Smith0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/3927731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead18643.60
Jeremy Hill4256.30
James White5183.60
Cordarrelle Patterson3134.30
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski781231
Phillip Dorsett77661
James White49381
Chris Hogan15110
Cordarrelle Patterson1160
Jeremy Hill1160
Rex Burkhead1350
Riley McCarron0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.82