2025 · DIV

Final

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

16·28

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapPatriots
  • -0.008EPA / play+0.154
  • 41.7%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.149EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.2%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -1.68CPOE+10.94
  • 37.4%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.47
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 12–4 since 1999

Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6HOU @ NE41–21HOU
2021 · W5NE @ HOU25–22NE
2020 · W11NE @ HOU20–27HOU
2019 · W13NE @ HOU22–28HOU
2018 · W1HOU @ NE20–27NE
2017 · W3HOU @ NE33–36NE
2016 · playoffsHOU @ NE16–34NE
2016 · W3HOU @ NE0–27NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NE
NEQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
HOUQ1 13:3733Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:53666Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 9:351068Field goal3–7
NEQ1 5:263-19Punt3–7
HOUQ1 3:41511Turnover3–7
NEQ1 1:3729Turnover3–7
HOUQ1 0:53627Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 12:51612Punt10–13
HOUQ2 10:4110Opp touchdown10–14
HOUQ2 10:31410Turnover10–14
NEQ2 8:3332Punt10–14
HOUQ2 6:3330Punt10–14
NEQ2 6:00556Touchdown10–21
HOUQ2 3:12512Turnover10–21
NEQ2 1:5433Punt10–21
HOUQ2 1:0331Punt10–21
NEQ2 0:364-1Turnover10–21
HOUQ3 15:001058Field goal13–21
NEQ3 9:4534Turnover13–21
HOUQ3 8:08516Turnover13–21
NEQ3 5:2133Punt13–21
HOUQ3 3:2865Field goal16–21
NEQ3 1:32754Touchdown16–28
HOUQ4 12:5834Punt16–28
NEQ4 11:571044Punt16–28
HOUQ4 5:4867Punt16–28
NEQ4 4:03511Punt16–28
HOUQ4 1:45519Turnover on downs16–28
NEQ4 1:0300End of half16–28

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud20/4721214

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks14171.20
Nick Chubb4143.50
C.J. Stroud2115.50
Cade Stover263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Higgins610590
Dalton Schultz22470
Xavier Hutchinson413440
Harrison Bryant36210
Christian Kirk26201
Woody Marks23190
Cade Stover1320
Nick Chubb0100
Jaylin Noel0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye16/2717931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson16704.40
TreVeyon Henderson12252.10
Drake Maye4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kayshon Boutte35751
Stefon Diggs46401
DeMario Douglas22361
Austin Hooper12140
Rhamondre Stevenson44110
Hunter Henry1250
Kyle Williams0300
TreVeyon Henderson12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+4.06