Closing spread
NE -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.154
- 41.7%Success rate48.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.2%Explosive rate10.5%
- -1.68CPOE+10.94
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.3%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.05Points / drive2.47
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–4 since 1999
Meetings average 51.1 points. NE are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 20/47 | 212 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 14 | 17 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Higgins | 6 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 4 | 13 | 44 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Woody Marks | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 16/27 | 179 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.06