2006 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Joey Harrington

0·21

Bills

Buffalo

QB J.P. Losman

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 53°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

BUF -1

Total

34

Model margin

+2.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.103EPA / play-0.089
  • 41.6%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.139EPA / rush-0.157
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.62CPOE+3.28
  • 37.7%Third-down rate30.9%
  • 45.8%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
  • 1.19Points / drive1.31
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
MIAQ1 15:001151Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ1 9:514-1Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 8:31714Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ1 4:193-2Punt0–0
MIAQ1 2:27521Punt0–0
BUFQ2 14:48643Punt0–0
MIAQ2 10:4736Punt0–0
BUFQ2 9:1936Punt0–0
MIAQ2 8:2035Punt0–0
BUFQ2 6:33467Touchdown0–7
MIAQ2 4:4032Punt0–7
BUFQ2 2:48514End of half0–7
BUFQ3 15:00613Turnover0–7
MIAQ3 11:4010Turnover0–7
BUFQ3 11:27855Touchdown0–14
MIAQ3 8:0630Punt0–14
BUFQ3 7:0037Punt0–14
MIAQ3 5:1332Punt0–14
BUFQ3 4:1739Punt0–14
MIAQ3 2:41617Turnover0–14
BUFQ4 14:49753Touchdown0–21
MIAQ4 10:21517Punt0–21
BUFQ4 7:47520Punt0–21
MIAQ4 4:3736Punt0–21
BUFQ4 3:3732Punt0–21
MIAQ4 2:321071End of half0–21

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cleo Lemon9/169800
Joey Harrington5/172002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris20713.50
Travis Minor5214.20
Chris Chambers11111.00
Joey Harrington177.00
Marty Booker122.00

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.P. Losman13/1920030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee28792.80
Anthony Thomas6162.70
J.P. Losman2115.50
Josh Reed1-6-6.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.02