Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
34
Model margin
+2.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play-0.089
- 41.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.157
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.62CPOE+3.28
- 37.7%Third-down rate30.9%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.19Points / drive1.31
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 9/16 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 5/17 | 20 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 20 | 71 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 13/19 | 200 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 28 | 79 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.02