Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.011
- 44.2%Success rate42.5%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.6%
- +0.89CPOE+0.26
- 43.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.82Points / drive1.59
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–3 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.7 points. JAX are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:35 | 11 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:52 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:32 | 8 | 28 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:19 | 1 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 12:59 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 10:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 8:38 | 14 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:17 | 5 | 22 | End of half | 10–7 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q3 11:24 | 7 | 45 | Missed field goal | 17–7 |
| NE | Q3 7:31 | 5 | 31 | Missed field goal | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q3 4:43 | 5 | 45 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NE | Q3 3:06 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q4 14:16 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NE | Q4 10:29 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 17–14 |
| JAX | Q4 9:18 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NE | Q4 8:25 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| JAX | Q4 4:36 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| NE | Q4 3:03 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 24–21 |
| JAX | Q4 1:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–21 |
| NE | Q4 1:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/39 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 17/23 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 131 | 6.9 | 2 |
| David Garrard | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.35