Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.089
- 37.6%Success rate41.6%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.118EPA / rush-0.157
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.37CPOE+3.28
- 32.7%Third-down rate30.9%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate58.9%
- 1.35Points / drive1.31
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 8–6 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. BUF are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 13/20 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 25 | 135 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 8 | 61 | 7.6 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Courtney Roby | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 19/33 | 266 | 1 | 2 |
| Lee Evans | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.48