Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
37
Model margin
+6.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.014
- 41.6%Success rate40.5%
- -0.033EPA / dropback+0.108
- -0.157EPA / rush-0.175
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.0%
- +3.28CPOE+3.00
- 30.9%Third-down rate42.7%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.57
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 7:08 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 5:01 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q1 4:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q1 3:48 | 12 | 57 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BUF | Q2 12:16 | 10 | 51 | Punt | 0–3 |
| BAL | Q2 6:43 | 13 | 66 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q2 1:32 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q2 0:27 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–6 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| BAL | Q3 14:15 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–9 |
| BUF | Q3 12:28 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–9 |
| BAL | Q3 8:08 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–9 |
| BUF | Q3 6:32 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–9 |
| BAL | Q3 5:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–9 |
| BUF | Q3 4:33 | 2 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 7–16 |
| BUF | Q3 3:46 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 7–16 |
| BAL | Q3 0:56 | 8 | 58 | Punt | 7–16 |
| BUF | Q4 10:43 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–16 |
| BAL | Q4 9:06 | 8 | 46 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| BUF | Q4 4:48 | 8 | 65 | Turnover | 7–19 |
| BAL | Q4 2:15 | 2 | 32 | End of half | 7–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 20/35 | 237 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| J.P. Losman | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reed | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 23/35 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Clayton | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.51