Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
38
Model margin
-1.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.072
- 41.2%Success rate44.8%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.049
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.31CPOE+2.07
- 31.1%Third-down rate45.7%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.29Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 23/27 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Martin | 16/24 | 208 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 4/5 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Branch | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Fred McAfee | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.54