Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
38
Model margin
-1.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.072
- 41.2%Success rate44.8%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.112EPA / rush-0.049
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.31CPOE+2.07
- 31.1%Third-down rate45.7%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.29Points / drive1.91
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q1 11:09 | 9 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 5:53 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 4:33 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q1 0:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 13:39 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 12:01 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NO | Q2 10:17 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CAR | Q2 8:38 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 1:02 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 14–14 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–14 |
| NO | Q3 11:18 | 2 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 21–14 |
| NO | Q3 10:33 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 21–14 |
| CAR | Q3 8:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–14 |
| NO | Q3 6:27 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| CAR | Q3 5:32 | 2 | 24 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| NO | Q3 4:52 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 31–21 |
| NO | Q3 9:53 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 31–21 |
| CAR | Q4 4:55 | 5 | 32 | End of half | 31–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 23/27 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 9 | 7 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Martin | 16/24 | 208 | 1 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 4/5 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Branch | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Fred McAfee | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.9%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.54