Closing spread
CHI -2.5
Total
37
Model margin
+2.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.046
- 40.0%Success rate40.3%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.039
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- -5.72CPOE-3.50
- 38.9%Third-down rate37.7%
- 36.6%Red-zone TD rate50.6%
- 1.28Points / drive1.80
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/42 | 285 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 22 | 71 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ingle Martin | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 5/15 | 124 | 1 | 2 |
| Rex Grossman | 2/12 | 33 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 13 | 109 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.63