Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.086
- 44.2%Success rate37.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.89CPOE-5.37
- 43.7%Third-down rate32.7%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.82Points / drive1.35
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/24 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2/3 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Kelvin Kight | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Jackson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 15/36 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.65