Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
-1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.086
- 44.2%Success rate37.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- +0.89CPOE-5.37
- 43.7%Third-down rate32.7%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.82Points / drive1.35
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:36 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 9:22 | 5 | 61 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q1 6:02 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q1 4:28 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 9–3 |
| TEN | Q1 1:48 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 9–3 |
| NE | Q1 1:33 | 6 | 16 | Field goal | 12–3 |
| TEN | Q2 13:27 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 12–3 |
| NE | Q2 10:09 | 11 | 91 | Touchdown | 19–3 |
| TEN | Q2 4:59 | 6 | 63 | Missed field goal | 19–3 |
| NE | Q2 1:53 | 4 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 19–10 |
| NE | Q2 0:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 19–10 |
| NE | Q3 13:32 | 4 | 9 | Missed field goal | 19–10 |
| TEN | Q3 12:00 | 11 | 23 | Field goal | 19–13 |
| NE | Q3 7:05 | 1 | 62 | Touchdown | 26–13 |
| TEN | Q3 6:49 | 4 | 56 | Field goal | 26–16 |
| NE | Q3 4:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 26–16 |
| TEN | Q3 4:01 | 6 | 36 | Touchdown | 26–23 |
| NE | Q3 1:26 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 26–23 |
| TEN | Q4 13:55 | 6 | 13 | Turnover | 26–23 |
| NE | Q4 11:05 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 26–23 |
| TEN | Q4 9:15 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 26–23 |
| NE | Q4 8:28 | 4 | 40 | Touchdown | 33–23 |
| TEN | Q4 6:40 | 6 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 33–23 |
| NE | Q4 4:55 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 40–23 |
| TEN | Q4 1:45 | 3 | 40 | Turnover | 40–23 |
| NE | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 40–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/24 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2/3 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Kelvin Kight | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Chad Jackson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 15/36 | 227 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.65