2006 · Week 17
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
37
Model margin
+4.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.186
- 40.2%Success rate37.6%
- -0.031EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.149
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -1.93CPOE-4.51
- 37.5%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate43.2%
- 1.49Points / drive0.82
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 7–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.3 points. TB are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 17/29 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 28 | 92 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 16/27 | 185 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Stovall | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.32
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.86