Closing spread
NE -9.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+4.4est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.063
- 43.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.057EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.007
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.38CPOE+0.89
- 44.6%Third-down rate43.7%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.74Points / drive1.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 23/40 | 300 | 1 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 1/1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Cedric Houston | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/34 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43