Closing spread
SD -5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:48 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:05 | 8 | 30 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:15 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:40 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q2 13:20 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 11:50 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 7:19 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:24 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 5:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:27 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NE | Q2 2:04 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:08 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q3 12:35 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NE | Q3 11:32 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q3 10:32 | 7 | 3 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NE | Q3 7:17 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NE | Q3 5:20 | 9 | 15 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:11 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| NE | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q4 13:19 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| NE | Q4 8:35 | 6 | 22 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| NE | Q4 6:16 | 5 | 32 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| LAC | Q4 4:36 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–21 |
| NE | Q4 3:30 | 7 | 72 | Field goal | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 1:10 | 3 | 39 | Missed field goal | 24–21 |
| NE | Q4 0:03 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/51 | 280 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.