Closing spread
NO -5.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play+0.072
- 43.0%Success rate44.8%
- +0.117EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.049EPA / rush-0.049
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.03CPOE+2.07
- 42.8%Third-down rate45.7%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.67Points / drive1.91
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.1 points. NO are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 15/30 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 116 | 8.9 | 2 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/32 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 21 | 143 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.06
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.23