Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.153
- 44.2%Success rate51.4%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.89CPOE+4.70
- 43.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.82Points / drive2.54
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/34 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/47 | 349 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.35