Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.153
- 44.2%Success rate51.4%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.89CPOE+4.70
- 43.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.82Points / drive2.54
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:26 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 11:00 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:24 | 14 | 66 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:48 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 10:18 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 21–3 |
| IND | Q2 9:25 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 21–3 |
| NE | Q2 7:33 | 8 | 14 | Punt | 21–3 |
| IND | Q2 3:06 | 14 | 80 | Field goal | 21–6 |
| NE | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–6 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| NE | Q3 8:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–13 |
| IND | Q3 6:50 | 7 | 53 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| NE | Q3 4:00 | 5 | 21 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| IND | Q3 1:25 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| NE | Q4 13:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 28–28 |
| IND | Q4 11:06 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 28–28 |
| NE | Q4 10:26 | 6 | 38 | Field goal | 31–28 |
| IND | Q4 7:42 | 4 | 59 | Field goal | 31–31 |
| NE | Q4 5:31 | 4 | 29 | Field goal | 34–31 |
| IND | Q4 3:49 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 34–31 |
| NE | Q4 3:22 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 34–31 |
| IND | Q4 2:17 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 34–38 |
| NE | Q4 1:00 | 4 | 34 | Turnover | 34–38 |
| IND | Q4 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/34 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/47 | 349 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.35