Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.254
- 42.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.38CPOE-5.63
- 36.9%Third-down rate31.5%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.68Points / drive0.92
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:41 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:30 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 11:21 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 7:22 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 5:03 | 12 | 48 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:51 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 11:49 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 9:10 | 11 | 41 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q2 3:35 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:36 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q3 13:36 | 5 | 9 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 11:15 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–13 |
| SF | Q3 9:08 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 6:35 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 10–13 |
| SF | Q3 3:09 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q3 1:37 | 8 | 38 | Punt | 10–13 |
| SF | Q4 13:16 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q4 11:09 | 9 | 38 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| SF | Q4 6:40 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–13 |
| ARI | Q4 5:29 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 17–13 |
| SF | Q4 2:58 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| ARI | Q4 0:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| SF | Q4 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 14/28 | 102 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 92 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/31 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88