Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.254
- 42.9%Success rate36.7%
- +0.012EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.213
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +0.38CPOE-5.63
- 36.9%Third-down rate31.5%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.68Points / drive0.92
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 14/28 | 102 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 92 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 6 | 35 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/31 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 18 | 55 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88