Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
44
Model margin
+3.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.109
- 44.2%Success rate45.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.32CPOE+4.58
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.67Points / drive2.23
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/41 | 312 | 4 | 1 |
| Jared Lorenzen | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 13 | 89 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jared Lorenzen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 15/24 | 345 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.82