Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
6.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.075
- 45.5%Success rate43.6%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.184
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.109
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.87CPOE+4.25
- 43.4%Third-down rate42.9%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.66Points / drive2.16
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 11–7 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/33 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 20 | 85 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Tapeh | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/42 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81