Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.038
- 43.6%Success rate44.2%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.008
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.25CPOE-5.32
- 42.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.16Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 29/38 | 286 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShawn Wynn | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Brandon Jackson | 17 | 35 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/29 | 211 | 1 | 1 |
| Jared Lorenzen | 3/5 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 1/6 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sinorice Moss | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25