Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
40
Model margin
+0.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.038
- 43.6%Success rate44.2%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.008
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +4.25CPOE-5.32
- 42.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.16Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. NYG are 9-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 40 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:16 | 10 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 6:36 | 8 | 39 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 1:37 | 9 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q2 13:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q2 11:31 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q2 8:18 | 2 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 7:16 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 5:24 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| GB | Q2 1:38 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 42 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NYG | Q3 9:07 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| GB | Q3 4:22 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| NYG | Q4 13:33 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 21–13 |
| GB | Q4 13:26 | 5 | 22 | Touchdown | 28–13 |
| NYG | Q4 11:41 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–13 |
| GB | Q4 10:06 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 28–13 |
| NYG | Q4 8:30 | 8 | 38 | Turnover | 28–13 |
| GB | Q4 6:35 | 5 | 53 | Touchdown | 35–13 |
| NYG | Q4 4:12 | 15 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 35–13 |
| GB | Q4 1:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 35–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 29/38 | 286 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShawn Wynn | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Brandon Jackson | 17 | 35 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 16/29 | 211 | 1 | 1 |
| Jared Lorenzen | 3/5 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 1/6 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 15 | 90 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Sinorice Moss | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.25