Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.037
- 45.1%Success rate42.9%
- +0.107EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.116
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.40CPOE+0.38
- 35.7%Third-down rate36.9%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.77Points / drive1.68
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 40 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:46 | 9 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 4:32 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 1:27 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:52 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 14:07 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q2 11:08 | 4 | 40 | Punt | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q2 10:12 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q2 9:14 | 5 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 5:43 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q2 1:16 | 5 | 52 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q3 11:55 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| ARI | Q3 8:42 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–17 |
| SEA | Q3 6:15 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 17–17 |
| ARI | Q3 3:34 | 8 | 41 | Punt | 17–17 |
| SEA | Q4 14:11 | 8 | 78 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| ARI | Q4 9:52 | 10 | 66 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| SEA | Q4 4:44 | 8 | 39 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| ARI | Q4 1:48 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| SEA | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/36 | 281 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Leinart | 23/37 | 299 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 24 | 128 | 5.3 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matt Leinart | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.65
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.62