Closing spread
STL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+5.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 11/17 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Taylor Jacobs | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.70
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.