Closing spread
STL -3
Total
44
Model margin
+5.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:24 | 6 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:54 | 6 | 25 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 6:04 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 4:49 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:39 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:57 | 10 | 80 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| SF | Q2 9:04 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:32 | 9 | 81 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| SF | Q2 1:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 26 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| SF | Q3 12:59 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LA | Q3 11:07 | 6 | 79 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| SF | Q3 7:35 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| LA | Q3 2:43 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 14–13 |
| SF | Q4 14:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–13 |
| LA | Q4 13:45 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 14–13 |
| SF | Q4 11:44 | 1 | -7 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| LA | Q4 11:38 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| SF | Q4 10:04 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 14–16 |
| SF | Q4 5:42 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| LA | Q4 3:23 | 4 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 17–16 |
| SF | Q4 2:35 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 17–16 |
| LA | Q4 1:53 | 8 | 37 | Missed field goal | 17–16 |
| SF | Q4 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 11/17 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 81 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Taylor Jacobs | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.70
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.