2007 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.041
- 41.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.199EPA / rush+0.017
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.48CPOE-0.87
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.66
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–22 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:17 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 6:57 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 3:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 2:07 | 4 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 15:00 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| WAS | Q2 10:45 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| PHI | Q2 9:53 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| WAS | Q2 7:05 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 3–6 |
| PHI | Q2 3:17 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–6 |
| WAS | Q2 1:42 | 9 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q2 0:09 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–6 |
| WAS | Q3 13:54 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–6 |
| PHI | Q3 10:33 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–6 |
| WAS | Q3 8:58 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| PHI | Q3 5:47 | 9 | 56 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| WAS | Q3 1:15 | 8 | 63 | Touchdown | 20–9 |
| PHI | Q4 12:02 | 12 | 61 | Field goal | 20–12 |
| WAS | Q4 6:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–12 |
| PHI | Q4 4:52 | 12 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 20–12 |
| WAS | Q4 1:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 16/29 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/46 | 240 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39