2007 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.041
- 41.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.199EPA / rush+0.017
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.48CPOE-0.87
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate49.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.66
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 16/29 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/46 | 240 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 17 | 96 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39