2007 · Week 3 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.040
- 44.2%Success rate41.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.199
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.32CPOE+2.48
- 41.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.67Points / drive1.59
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 43 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:48 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 7:19 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 5:44 | 1 | -13 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| WAS | Q1 5:37 | 2 | 6 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q1 4:57 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q1 0:50 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NYG | Q2 13:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 12:11 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q2 7:55 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 3–14 |
| WAS | Q2 4:11 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NYG | Q2 2:11 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| WAS | Q2 1:33 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q3 9:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NYG | Q3 8:53 | 5 | 29 | Turnover | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q3 6:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–17 |
| NYG | Q3 3:44 | 12 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q4 12:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–17 |
| NYG | Q4 10:52 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q4 8:19 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| NYG | Q4 7:33 | 5 | 37 | Touchdown | 24–17 |
| WAS | Q4 5:32 | 8 | 16 | Punt | 24–17 |
| NYG | Q4 2:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–17 |
| WAS | Q4 2:19 | 10 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 24–17 |
| NYG | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/36 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 26 | 94 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 16/34 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.71