2007 · Week 3 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.040
- 44.2%Success rate41.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.199
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.32CPOE+2.48
- 41.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.67Points / drive1.59
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/36 | 232 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 26 | 94 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 2 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 16/34 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.71