Closing spread
GB -1
Total
38
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.033
- 43.6%Success rate43.2%
- +0.184EPA / dropback-0.029
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.037
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.4%
- +4.25CPOE-0.23
- 42.9%Third-down rate35.8%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 2.16Points / drive1.51
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 32/45 | 344 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShawn Wynn | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Holcomb | 21/39 | 258 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 112 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kelly Holcomb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58