Closing spread
SD -12
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. SD are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 71 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 8:19 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:58 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| KC | Q1 3:56 | 4 | 26 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 0:31 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 14:51 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:10 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q2 9:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:15 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| KC | Q2 6:55 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 3–13 |
| LAC | Q2 4:31 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| KC | Q2 4:15 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| LAC | Q2 1:20 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 6–16 |
| LAC | Q3 12:23 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 6–16 |
| KC | Q3 9:18 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 9–16 |
| LAC | Q3 5:28 | 5 | 9 | Turnover | 9–16 |
| KC | Q3 2:29 | 3 | 36 | Touchdown | 16–16 |
| LAC | Q3 1:50 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 16–16 |
| KC | Q3 0:10 | 8 | 87 | Touchdown | 23–16 |
| LAC | Q4 11:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 23–16 |
| KC | Q4 10:17 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 23–16 |
| LAC | Q4 8:16 | 3 | -9 | Opp touchdown | 30–16 |
| LAC | Q4 7:24 | 12 | 72 | Turnover on downs | 30–16 |
| KC | Q4 3:41 | 7 | 54 | End of half | 30–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 17/29 | 284 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 25 | 123 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.