Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.038
- 45.5%Success rate44.2%
- +0.053EPA / dropback-0.061
- +0.017EPA / rush-0.008
- 9.3%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.87CPOE-5.32
- 43.4%Third-down rate41.9%
- 49.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.66Points / drive1.67
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 15/31 | 138 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 17 | 103 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/26 | 135 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.50