2007 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

3·16

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PHI -2

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.038
  • 45.5%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback-0.061
  • +0.017EPA / rush-0.008
  • 9.3%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.87CPOE-5.32
  • 43.4%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 49.7%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.66Points / drive1.67
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0046Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:583-1Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:451150Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 5:13729Punt0–0
NYGQ1 1:51610Punt0–0
PHIQ2 14:363-6Punt0–0
NYGQ2 13:04449Touchdown0–7
PHIQ2 11:091367Missed field goal0–7
NYGQ2 3:52633Turnover0–7
PHIQ2 1:173-5Punt0–7
NYGQ2 0:0800End of half0–7
PHIQ3 15:003-1Punt0–7
NYGQ3 13:4651Punt0–7
PHIQ3 11:3831Punt0–7
NYGQ3 10:0937Punt0–7
PHIQ3 8:34617Punt0–7
NYGQ3 5:02623Field goal0–10
PHIQ3 2:0320Opp touchdown0–16
PHIQ3 1:30940Field goal3–16
NYGQ4 12:5138Punt3–16
PHIQ4 10:503-6Punt3–16
NYGQ4 9:41518Punt3–16
PHIQ4 6:361255Turnover on downs3–16
NYGQ4 2:19312End of half3–16

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb15/3113800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Correll Buckhalter171036.10
Tony Hunt273.50
Donovan McNabb441.00

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning14/2613511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Ward19804.20
Reuben Droughns581.60
Eli Manning3-5-1.70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.50