Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.254
- 45.1%Success rate36.7%
- +0.107EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.213
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.40CPOE-5.63
- 35.7%Third-down rate31.5%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.77Points / drive0.92
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/31 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/33 | 128 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.22