Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play-0.254
- 45.1%Success rate36.7%
- +0.107EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.213
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.40CPOE-5.63
- 35.7%Third-down rate31.5%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.77Points / drive0.92
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:14 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:33 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 4:35 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 3:24 | 10 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 12:55 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 10:48 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 8:01 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 7:01 | 2 | 82 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| SF | Q2 6:10 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 10–0 |
| SEA | Q2 3:28 | 7 | 68 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| SF | Q2 0:57 | 8 | 57 | End of half | 13–0 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| SF | Q3 14:55 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| SEA | Q3 14:48 | 7 | 39 | Touchdown | 20–0 |
| SF | Q3 12:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–0 |
| SEA | Q3 10:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–0 |
| SF | Q3 8:38 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 20–0 |
| SEA | Q3 6:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–0 |
| SF | Q3 6:20 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| SEA | Q3 4:36 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 20–3 |
| SF | Q3 2:05 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 20–3 |
| SEA | Q3 1:20 | 6 | 17 | Field goal | 23–3 |
| SF | Q4 14:49 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 23–3 |
| SEA | Q4 11:16 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 23–3 |
| SF | Q4 5:52 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 23–3 |
| SEA | Q4 4:58 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 23–3 |
| SF | Q4 2:21 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 23–3 |
| SEA | Q4 1:47 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/31 | 281 | 2 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 25 | 78 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 12/33 | 128 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.22