Closing spread
DAL -13
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:47 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:11 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:09 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:48 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 3:13 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 2:11 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q2 15:00 | 7 | 31 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q2 12:00 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 7:15 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 3:55 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 2:11 | 12 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–14 |
| DAL | Q3 13:01 | 3 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LA | Q3 12:41 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q3 10:52 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| LA | Q3 9:40 | 9 | 51 | Turnover | 7–28 |
| DAL | Q3 5:08 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| LA | Q3 2:22 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–35 |
| DAL | Q4 14:44 | 9 | 50 | Punt | 7–35 |
| LA | Q4 8:14 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–35 |
| DAL | Q4 5:31 | 8 | 47 | End of half | 7–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/33 | 339 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.