Closing spread
DAL -13
Total
47
Model margin
+3.6est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 21/33 | 339 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Brad Johnson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.