Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 14/28 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 7/13 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 88 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
6.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.