Closing spread
ARI -3.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.3est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:14 | 9 | 28 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 8:31 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LA | Q1 3:57 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 14:55 | 9 | 55 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:29 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 3–10 |
| ARI | Q2 7:54 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 3:32 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q2 3:02 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:23 | 4 | 16 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| ARI | Q2 1:17 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| ARI | Q3 11:44 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 10:16 | 7 | 21 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| ARI | Q3 7:22 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 6:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 17–20 |
| ARI | Q3 5:36 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| LA | Q3 1:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–20 |
| ARI | Q3 1:05 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–20 |
| LA | Q3 0:04 | 4 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 27–20 |
| LA | Q4 13:47 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 27–23 |
| ARI | Q4 8:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 27–23 |
| LA | Q4 7:49 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 27–23 |
| ARI | Q4 6:36 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 34–23 |
| LA | Q4 3:11 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 34–31 |
| ARI | Q4 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 14/28 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 7/13 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 88 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
6.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.33
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.