Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+6.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play+0.011
- 38.9%Success rate47.6%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.101
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- -5.47CPOE+4.63
- 36.1%Third-down rate46.0%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.27Points / drive1.69
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 10/17 | 119 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 1/2 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/47 | 252 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+6.04