Closing spread
GB -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play+0.075
- 38.4%Success rate43.6%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.109
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.34CPOE+4.25
- 34.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.34Points / drive2.16
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 15/25 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 27 | 64 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 29/40 | 322 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShawn Wynn | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.47