Closing spread
GB -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.128EPA / play+0.075
- 38.4%Success rate43.6%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.109
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- -3.34CPOE+4.25
- 34.3%Third-down rate42.9%
- 49.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.34Points / drive2.16
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 83 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 11:01 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 9:35 | 9 | 70 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 4:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 2:48 | 3 | 36 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 1:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| GB | Q1 0:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 13:34 | 12 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| GB | Q2 7:52 | 5 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| CHI | Q2 4:55 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 7–14 |
| GB | Q2 2:09 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| CHI | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| GB | Q3 12:03 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| CHI | Q3 9:02 | 7 | 1 | Punt | 10–20 |
| GB | Q3 5:58 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 16–20 |
| CHI | Q3 4:24 | 1 | 19 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| GB | Q3 4:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 17–20 |
| CHI | Q3 2:33 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–20 |
| CHI | Q3 0:39 | 4 | 23 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| GB | Q4 14:13 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–20 |
| CHI | Q4 12:29 | 4 | 5 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| GB | Q4 10:48 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 20–20 |
| CHI | Q4 9:30 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 20–20 |
| GB | Q4 7:38 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 20–20 |
| CHI | Q4 5:27 | 8 | 79 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| GB | Q4 2:05 | 8 | 41 | Turnover | 27–20 |
| CHI | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 15/25 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 27 | 64 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 29/40 | 322 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShawn Wynn | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.47