2007 · Week 6

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Vinny Testaverde

25·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.088EPA / play-0.037
  • 38.9%Success rate42.9%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.012
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.116
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
  • -5.47CPOE+0.38
  • 36.1%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.68
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 14–7 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2CAR @ ARI22–27ARI
2024 · W16ARI @ CAR30–36CAR
2022 · W4ARI @ CAR26–16ARI
2021 · W10CAR @ ARI34–10CAR
2020 · W4ARI @ CAR21–31CAR
2019 · W3CAR @ ARI38–20CAR
2016 · W8ARI @ CAR20–30CAR
2015 · playoffsARI @ CAR15–49CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00221Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:02421Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:2832Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:2937Punt0–0
ARIQ1 8:292-12Turnover0–0
CARQ1 7:13621Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 3:4839Punt3–0
CARQ1 2:10739Field goal6–0
ARIQ2 14:501153Touchdown6–0
ARIQ2 7:5310Touchdown6–6
ARIQ2 7:22123Touchdown6–7
ARIQ2 7:1600Touchdown6–7
CARQ2 7:1637Punt6–7
CARQ2 5:5200Punt6–7
ARIQ2 5:4038Punt6–7
CARQ2 3:1930Punt6–7
CARQ2 3:0700Punt6–7
ARIQ2 2:5538Punt6–7
CARQ2 1:0622End of half6–7
CARQ3 15:0039Punt6–7
ARIQ3 12:2846Punt6–7
CARQ3 10:231032Field goal9–7
ARIQ3 5:44640Field goal9–10
CARQ3 3:201157Missed field goal9–10
ARIQ4 13:2937Punt9–10
CARQ4 11:4558Punt9–10
ARIQ4 9:13620Punt9–10
CARQ4 5:52265Touchdown15–10
ARIQ4 5:4010Turnover15–10
CARQ4 5:2539Field goal18–10
ARIQ4 4:26630Turnover18–10
CARQ4 3:19489Touchdown25–10
ARIQ4 2:0710Turnover25–10
CARQ4 1:5048Punt25–10
ARIQ4 0:05142End of half25–10

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde20/3320610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams1012112.11
DeShaun Foster17432.50
Steve Smith2157.50
Alex Haynes122.00

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Rattay12/2415903
Kurt Warner2/22100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James22803.61
Steve Breaston11010.00
Tim Rattay252.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.36