Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.088EPA / play-0.037
- 38.9%Success rate42.9%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.116
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.2%
- -5.47CPOE+0.38
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.9%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.27Points / drive1.68
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. ARI are 8-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 20/33 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 121 | 12.1 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 17 | 43 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Alex Haynes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 12/24 | 159 | 0 | 3 |
| Kurt Warner | 2/2 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.36