Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.132
- 46.0%Success rate37.8%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.9%
- +5.31CPOE-0.79
- 45.6%Third-down rate34.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.86Points / drive0.94
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/43 | 320 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 25/35 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 119 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-0.21