Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.024EPA / play-0.132
- 46.0%Success rate37.8%
- +0.100EPA / dropback-0.112
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.9%
- +5.31CPOE-0.79
- 45.6%Third-down rate34.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
- 1.86Points / drive0.94
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 34 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 9:39 | 4 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 7:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q1 6:25 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| KC | Q1 4:59 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q1 0:53 | 7 | 13 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 13:00 | 5 | 49 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 11:04 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 9:57 | 6 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q2 6:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–17 |
| KC | Q2 4:24 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q2 1:52 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–17 |
| KC | Q2 1:27 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q3 13:17 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CIN | Q3 9:36 | 5 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 7–20 |
| KC | Q3 8:10 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–20 |
| CIN | Q3 6:57 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q3 4:16 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| CIN | Q3 1:48 | 7 | 37 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| KC | Q4 13:54 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–20 |
| CIN | Q4 12:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–20 |
| KC | Q4 11:13 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| CIN | Q4 8:03 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| KC | Q4 5:03 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CIN | Q4 3:48 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 17–27 |
| KC | Q4 3:18 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–27 |
| CIN | Q4 1:53 | 5 | 68 | Field goal | 20–27 |
| KC | Q4 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 26/43 | 320 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Watson | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 25/35 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 31 | 119 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.48
- Expected margin-0.21