Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.128
- 43.2%Success rate38.4%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.190
- 10.4%Explosive rate6.6%
- -0.23CPOE-3.34
- 35.8%Third-down rate34.3%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate49.0%
- 1.51Points / drive1.34
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 9/23 | 136 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 224 | 11.2 | 3 |
| Chester Taylor | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 26/45 | 381 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 18 | 67 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.17