Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.006
- 47.6%Success rate45.1%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.107
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.63CPOE+2.40
- 46.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.69Points / drive1.77
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/36 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/43 | 362 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.08