Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.006
- 47.6%Success rate45.1%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.107
- -0.101EPA / rush-0.158
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- +4.63CPOE+2.40
- 46.0%Third-down rate35.7%
- 69.1%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.69Points / drive1.77
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. SEA are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:38 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 11:13 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 9:07 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 6:32 | 15 | 87 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| SEA | Q2 14:28 | 12 | 40 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| NO | Q2 8:06 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| SEA | Q2 5:18 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NO | Q2 2:16 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| SEA | Q2 0:30 | 3 | 38 | Field goal | 28–10 |
| NO | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 31 | Punt | 28–10 |
| SEA | Q3 9:25 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 28–10 |
| NO | Q3 6:38 | 13 | 53 | Turnover | 28–10 |
| SEA | Q3 0:37 | 7 | 48 | Punt | 28–10 |
| NO | Q4 11:53 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 28–10 |
| SEA | Q4 9:50 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 28–10 |
| NO | Q4 9:03 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 28–10 |
| SEA | Q4 8:10 | 6 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| NO | Q4 6:39 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 28–17 |
| SEA | Q4 5:05 | 5 | 55 | Turnover | 28–17 |
| NO | Q4 3:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 28–17 |
| SEA | Q4 2:13 | 6 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 28–17 |
| NO | Q4 1:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/36 | 246 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 26/43 | 362 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.08