Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:24 | 3 | -2 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:19 | 3 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 6:51 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q1 3:56 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q1 0:37 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:49 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 12:29 | 8 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:57 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 6:54 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 4:46 | 12 | 65 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 0:01 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q3 13:28 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LV | Q3 9:42 | 5 | 22 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 6:24 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LV | Q3 2:40 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–21 |
| LAC | Q3 1:10 | 6 | 13 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| LV | Q4 13:22 | 17 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| LAC | Q4 5:18 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| LV | Q4 2:43 | 9 | 64 | End of half | 14–28 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.