2007 · Week 6
Final
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
GB -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.075
- 41.8%Success rate43.6%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.199EPA / rush-0.109
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +2.48CPOE+4.25
- 41.1%Third-down rate42.9%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.59Points / drive2.16
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. GB are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 21/37 | 217 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/37 | 188 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShawn Wynn | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Vernand Morency | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.08
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.65