2007 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
WAS -9
Total
35
Model margin
+1.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.040
- 42.9%Success rate41.8%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.199
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- +0.38CPOE+2.48
- 36.9%Third-down rate41.1%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.68Points / drive1.59
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 14–4 since 1999
WAS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 38.9 points. WAS are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:07 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:51 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 8:32 | 8 | 20 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 4:12 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q2 14:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 13:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q2 11:47 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q2 7:55 | 4 | -2 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 7:00 | 9 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q2 1:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q2 1:46 | 6 | 23 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Missed field goal | 6–14 |
| ARI | Q3 12:45 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–14 |
| WAS | Q3 11:45 | 11 | 59 | Touchdown | 6–21 |
| ARI | Q3 5:47 | 12 | 49 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| WAS | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 13–21 |
| ARI | Q4 12:24 | 8 | 83 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| WAS | Q4 7:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–21 |
| ARI | Q4 5:45 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 13–21 |
| WAS | Q4 3:38 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–21 |
| ARI | Q4 2:37 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 19–21 |
| WAS | Q4 0:21 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 19–21 |
| ARI | Q4 0:20 | 3 | 22 | Missed field goal | 19–21 |
| WAS | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 27/41 | 282 | 2 | 2 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 27 | 83 | 3.1 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 12/18 | 95 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67